FanDuel MLB Main Slate Top Picks, Stacks and Value Plays for Thursday April 13, 2017

We have six games tonight on the FanDuel MLB slate. As usual there is plenty of value on this slate so we shouldn’t have that many problems building lineups that we like.

Weather shouldn’t be a factor and we have two games being played in indoor stadiums.

 

Game Money Line Over Under Totals
Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees Yankees -130 8.5
Baltimore @ Toronto Toronto -110 9
NY Mets @ Miami Marlins -130 8.5
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati Cincinnati -121 9
Oakland @ Kansas City Kansas City -134 8.5
Colorado @ San Francisco San Francisco -190 6.5

 

Pitching

Is it possible to like both pitchers from a game? If it is then I like Giants ace Madison Bumgarner ($11,400) and Rockies ace Jon Gray ($7800).

Let’s see how this shakes out.

The Rockies have a 26 percent strikeout rate against lefties and the Giants strikeout 20 percent of the time against righties.

The Rockies have a .307 wOBA and wRC+ of just 73 against lefties whereas the Giants have a .330 wOBA and wRC+ of 105 against righties. Bumgarner is responsible for much of what the Giants have accomplished offensively so we need to take that into consideration.

Bumgarner seems to be the obvious choice here but do we really want to spend $11,400 on him tonight? I think on this short slate we might have to.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Francisco Liriano ($7800) had a tough outing against the Rays last week but is home tonight against an Orioles team with a 23 percent strikeout rate, .271 wOBA and wRC+ of 77 in 91 plate appearances against lefties this season. Liriano should have the benefit of having his catcher Russell Martin behind the dish tonight and Liriano is an above .500 pitcher career wise when pitching at home. Liriano is another possible consideration tonight.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino ($6700) might be a good value option tonight against a Tampa Bay Rays offense with a 27 percent strikeout rate, .300 wOBA and wRC+ of 99 against righties this season. Severino is coming off a six strikeout five inning performance against the Orioles with only one walk. The Yankees are heavily favored so maybe Severino can get a Quality Start and maybe even a win tonight.

Stacking Options

The Yankees have been spanking righties this season and they have a good opportunity to do so again tonight when they face Ray’s rightie Matt Andriese. Matt Holiday ($3100), Chase Headley ($2900) and Aaron Judge ($2500 each have good opportunities tonight.

The Mets have been smashing lefties this season and they will have a good opportunity tonight against Marlins pitcher Wei-Yin Chen. Chen was solid his last outing against this same Mets team just last week but this Mets team is on fire with a .402 wOBA and 154 wRC+. Travis D’Arnaud ($2800), Asdrubel Cabrera ($3200) and Yoenis Cespedes ($4100) have great opportunities but you could also look to Wilmer Flores ($2700) and Jay Bruce ($3800) also.

The Cincinnati Reds may be in rebuild mode but no one told them this; especially against righties where they have just a 17 percent strikeout rate, .344 wOBA and wRC+ of 109. They are up against Brewers rightie Jimmy Nelson who is coming off a very good outing against the Cubs but that was at home where he traditionally is much better than on the road. I like Joey Votto ($3700) Zack Cozart ($3000), Eugenio Suarez ($3100), Adam Duvall ($3600) and Tucker Barnhart ($2100) tonight against Nelson.

Phil’s Top Three Plays of the Slate

 

Cincinnati Reds OF Adam Duvall ($3600) has a nice opportunity tonight at home against the Brewers Jimmy Nelson. Duvall has a .466 wOBA and wRC+ of 204 thus far this season and in spite of his 28 percent strikeout rate he’s one of my favorite plays tonight.

Miami Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton ($3500) has a good opportunity tonight against Mets SP Robert Gsellman. Stanton has a career wOBA of .369 and wRC+ of 134 not to mention he’s coming off a two bomb outing against Atlanta yesterday. Recency bias maybe but Stanton has always been streaky so why not?

The Giants Brandon Belt ($2900) has a good opportunity tonight against the Rockies Jon Gray. I know what I said about liking Gray tonight but Belt has been solid so far this season in 28 plate appearances against righties Belt has a .467 wOBA, a 194 wRC+ and .476 ISO with two bombs against righties this season.

Good luck at FanDuel tonight!!

Special thanks to FangraphsStatmuse and Baseball-Reference for helping me write this posting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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