Tonight, all eyes will be on Westbrook vs. Durant and rightfully so. These two megastars had an ugly split this offseason after Durant texted Westbrook that he was leaving to join 2-time reigning MVP Steph Curry and the Warriors. We won’t be focusing on the major players today.
This five-game slate is dominated by high priced veterans and superstars so we will need to focus on building around them with value. There are 7 players priced over 8k and another 20 over 6k. As an example, if you decide to roster Durant and Westbrook together, you will be left with an average per player salary of only 4500. This is how we will attack; players under 5.5k!
When putting my lineups together for an NBA slate, one of the first things I do is to analyze the teams for players under 5.5k who get minutes. In basketball, minutes = opportunity for points and the players in a top finishing DK lineup average 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Another trend I have noticed is that most winning DK lineups have one to three underpriced players.
We will look at these players below and then use them to fill in our winning lineup:
Legend: fpg = Fantasy Points per Game and fppm = Fantasy Points per Minute
Matthew Dellavedova ($4700) – PG/SG – Bucks: While everyone will be targeting the OKC/GSW game, all 5 games have an o/u of at least 205. Delly has been consistent averaging 27 fpg while posting an average of .85 fppm. He is not going to light up the scoreboard but is hitting 50 percent of his shots and can produce in other categories as well. I like him in the 2 spot in what could be one of the higher scoring games of the night.
Kris Dunn ($4900) – PG – Timberwolves: Dunn showed his defensive prowess in his first career start after Rubio was ruled out indefinitely. Dunn averaged 2.5 steals per game as a senior at Providence and 2.7 as a junior. Both marks led the Big East – he had 5 Tuesday night. While not as strong on offense he will be seeing a ton of minutes for now and is a steal at his price – see what I did there? He is averaging roughly 1 fppm and should see 35 minutes tonight. At $4900 he should exceed value as well and I expect modest ownership on him.
C.J. Miles ($3600) – SG/SF – Pacers: Miles is averaging 12 points per game so far this season on 18 minutes per game. He is getting 1.08 fppm and 20 fpg. Milwaukee is giving up 41 fpg to the SF spot and if this game turns into a blowout or shootout we could see C.J.’s minutes’ rise and at only $3600 it won’t take much to hit 7x value.
Andre Roberson ($4400) – SG/SF – Thunder: Here is an interesting play and one that I am torn on. In 3 games, he is averaging 25 fpg and at $4400 gives him a 6x return on investment. If this game stays close and high scoring, he could see minutes into the high 30’s maybe even 40 and hit 30 fantasy points in a game that will be dominated by megastars.
Amir Johnson ($3900) – PF/C – Celtics: This play is totally dependent of Jae Crowder’s injury and if he plays or not. Last night Crowder rolled his ankle and with Horford ruled out, Amir soaked up their minutes by shooting 9-11 for 23 points with 6 boards 3 dimes 3 steals and 2 blocks. Although they are playing defensively tough Cleveland, Johnson can be a well-rounded producer if given significant court time.
Using the above values, we can construct a lineup as follows for tonight’s GPP’s:
PG – Dunn
SG – Dellavedova
SF – Gay – Has been lights out lately
PF – D. Green – Is tired of being punk’d and will be aggressive
C – Amir
G – Lavine – Averaging 35 fpg and Denver is a team to target.
F – George – Has scored over 40 fantasy points in all but one game so far
Util – Dieng – Averaging about 40 fantasy points a game – good source of points and boards
This lineup gives us a fppm of 1.12 and is in line with the average number of value plays on the top lineups. We avoided the chalk, found value, and put ourselves in position for an effective fppm based on a quality expected minutes per game output.
Good Luck Tonight!!!
**If there’s a player you like that I didn’t mention, play him. I’m going to focus my analysis on best value for your dollar. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (username is @daveramos77) with any thoughts or questions for me; I’d love to hear from you.