FanDuel Top MLB Plays for Wednesday April 26, 2017

There are 12 MLB games on the main slate tonight at FanDuel. We still have Coors Field to contend with as well as another probable high scoring affair out in Arizona.

At the time of this writing the only weather problem seems to be in St Louis. As always please check the weather and this site is the one that I use for that.

 

 

Game Money Line Over Under Totals
Cubs @ Pirates Cubs -160 8
Marlins @ Phillies Miami -110 8
Rays @ Orioles Orioles -147 8
Mariners @ Tigers Mariners -107 8.5
Braves @ Mets Mets -170 6.5
Yankees @ Boston Boston -165 7.5
Twins @ Rangers Rangers -155 8.5
Blue Jays @ Cardinals Cardinals -182 8
Nationals @ Rockies Both teams -105 11
Padres @ Diamondbacks Diamondbacks -145 10
Athletics @ Angels Angels -140 8
Dodgers @ Giants Giants -130 7

 

Starting Pitching

At the time of this writing FanDuel only has 23 starting pitchers listed. So whoever is pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks won’t be considered here today.

The best option and the most expensive one is the Mets SP Noah Syndergaard ($11,500) against a Braves offense with a 21 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of 299 and wRC+ of 85 against righties this season.  Syndergaard has been dominant at home this season with a 33 percent strikeout rate, 1.97 SIERA and xFIP of 1.92. It really doesn’t get any better than this tonight.

Miami Marlins SP Wei-Yin Chen ($8400) has crazy home/road splits with Chen being a much better pitcher on the road than he is at home. As luck would have it Chen has a road game tonight against a Phillies offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate, .305 wOBA and wRC+ of 86 against lefties this season. Chen has a road ERA of 0.069 and hitters on the road are slugging just .200 with a wOBA of just .198 in 13 innings pitched. This is a bit more than I ordinarily pay for Chen but it might pay off tonight.

Minnesota Twins SP Hector Santiago ($7500) has a good opportunity tonight against a Rangers offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of .247 and wRC+ of 51 against lefties this season. This season Santiago has a 17 percent strikeout rate, 4.17 SIERA and 4.76 xFIP. Santiago does come with a bit of risk but I think he will go widely overlooked and numbers wise this should be the best matchup on the slate tonight.

Stacking Options for Tonight

Besides the obvious Coors Field stack here is what I am thinking about for tonight.

The New York Yankees have been killing right handed pitching this season. As luck would have it and weather permitting they will face Red Sox right hander Rick Porcello tonight. Left handed bats seem to be giving Porcello the most trouble thus far this season so by all means look to Yankees 3B Chase Headley ($3400), OF Jacoby Ellsbury ($3600), OF Brett Gardner ($3100) and OF Aaron Hicks ($3200) are the top left handed bats in a very potent Yankee lineup.

Vegas is expecting a pile of runs out in Arizona tonight and with the Diamondbacks not only heavily favored but the best hitting team in baseball against righties I would be looking at Yasmany Tomas ($3400), Paul Goldschmidt ($4300), Jake Lamb ($3800), David Peralta ($3300) A.J. Pollock ($4000) and Brandon Drury ($2600) are my top plays from that lineup tonight against the Padres rightie Trevor Cahill. Cahill has an 18 percent strikeout rate and 3.14 xFIP on the road this season.

New York Yankees SP Luis Severino has been hot this season but so has the Boston Red Sox against righties. As a team the Sox have a 16.2 percent strikeout rate, .345 wOBA and wRC+ of 126 against right handed arms this season. Bats I would use tonight against Severino are Mookie Betts ($4300), Mitch Moreland ($3600), Andrew Benintendi ($3800) and Xander Bogearts ($3400).

Phil’s Top Three Picks for Tonight

It would be easy to choose Bryce Harper or Trea Turner. It would also be easy to choose Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado too. And you should attempt to play these Dudes tonight. However I have some other ideas for you to also consider tonight.

I like Miami Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton ($4300) tonight against Phillies rightie Vincent Velasquez. This season on the road against righties Stanton has a .238 ISO, wOBA of 400 and wRC+ of 152 in 44 plate appearances.  Velasquez has been tough on right handed bats this season but his 3.00 home runs per nine innings at home is reason enough for me to use Stanton tonight.

Seattle Mariners OF Nelson Cruz ($4100) has been destroying lefties this season to the tune of a .231 ISO, wOBA of .405 and wRC+ of 172 in 18 plate appearances this season. Sample size to small? Okay; how about a career .261 ISO, .395 wOBA and wRC+ of 148 in 1444 plate appearances? That looks better doesn’t it? Play him against the Tigers Daniel Norris and make some money tonight.

Baltimore Orioles OF Seth Smith ($2800) crushes right handed pitchers. This season he has .313 ISO, .397 wOBA and wRC+ of 161 in 38 plate appearances this season. On the bump will be the Rays Alex Cobb and he has allowed left handed batters to launch 4.70 bombs per nine innings this season. That’s really all you need to know and while you are at it look at Orioles 1B Chris Davis ($3300) and his .256 ISO, wOBA of .367 and wRC+ of 140 against right handers this season.

Good luck at FanDuel tonight!

Special thanks to FangraphsVegas Insider, Statmuse and Baseball-Reference for helping me write this posting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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