FanDuel MLB Top Plays for Monday May 1, 2017

 

We have eleven games tonight on the main MLB slate at FanDuel. It’s also a Clayton Kershaw night and I expect him to be highly owned.

At the time of this writing the only sign of weather trouble is the Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs. Be sure and visit this site for all the latest weather updates.

 

Games Money Line Over Under Totals
Blue Jays @ Yankees Yankees -145 7.5
Orioles @ Red Sox Red Sox -134 8.5
Rays @ Marlins Marlins -129 8
Indians @ Tigers Indians -120 9
Pirates @ Reds Pirates -120 8.5
Mets @ Braves Braves -128 8
Phillies @ Cubs Cubs -180 11
Rangers @ Astros Astros -182 8.5
Brewers @ Cardinals Cardinals -171 8
White Sox @ Royals Royals -152 8.5
Giants @ Dodgers Dodgers -240 6

 

Starting Pitchers

Los Angeles Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw ($12,600) is the best pitcher in baseball: the Giants rank 28th in the Majors against lefties. There is no one on this slate with his consistent ceiling or his floor. Don’t overthink this one in cash games and from my standpoint it’s going to be difficult to pass him up in GPP’s tonight.

St Louis Cardinals SP Michael Wacha ($8000) is $4600 bucks cheaper and has a nice opportunity tonight against a Milwaukee Brewers offense with a 26 percent strikeout rate. wOBA of .321 and wRC+ of 93 against right handed pitchers this season. Wacha is striking out 23.5 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season with a SIERA of 3.69 and xFIP of 3.82. If you are going to fade Kershaw tonight you might want to consider Wacha tonight at home against the Brewers.

New York Yankees SP Luis Severino ($8500) has a good opportunity tonight against a Toronto Blue Jays offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate, .278 wOBA and wRC+ of 75 against right handed pitchers this season. Severino is striking out 33 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season with a 2.29 SIERA and xFIP of 2.19 to go along with eleven strikeouts per nine innings. Severino is probably going to be my choice tonight if I decide to fade Kershaw.

Stacking Opportunities for Tonight

There are plenty of stacking opportunities tonight and these are three that I like the best.

The Chicago White Sox have pummeled left handed pitching this season and bats that have been doing the most damage have been Avisail Garcia ($3900), Matt Davidson ($2500), Todd Frazier ($3600) Leury Garcia ($2700), Jose Abreu ($3500) and Melkey Cabrera ($3300). The White Sox roughed up Royals starting pitcher Frank Vargas in his last start and I think they will do it again tonight in Kansas City.

The New York Yankees are another team that is hammering lefties this season. I’m interested in Yankee bats Aaron Hicks ($3100), Aaron Judge ($4000), Starlin Castro ($3200), Chase Headley ($3300) and Brett Gardner ($3200) tonight against Toronto Blue Jays SP Marco Estrada and his 40 percent fly ball rate.

The Detroit Tigers have been smashing righties this season and they have a good opportunity tonight against Indians SP Trevor Bauer and his 38 percent fly ball rate and his nearly two bombs per nine innings. Tiger bats I am interested in tonight are Alex Avila ($2600), Justin Upton ($3500), Nicholas Castellanos ($3200) and Miguel Cabrera ($4200).

Phil’s Top Three Plays for Monday!

Houston Astros OF George Springer ($3300) has a good opportunity tonight against Texas Rangers SP Andrew Cashner and his 34 percent fly ball rate with 1.17 bombs per nine innings pitched. Springer has a .230 ISO, wOBA of .309 and 101 wRC+ against right handed pitchers this season.

Cleveland Indians 1B Edwin Encarnacion ($3800) has a nice opportunity tonight against Detroit Tigers leftie Daniel Norris and his 33 percent fly ball rate and miniscule 0.43 home runs per nine innings. Encarnacion has struggled against lefties so far this season but over his career has a .231 ISO, .375 wOBA and wRC+ of 132 so his recent struggles don’t mean much to me tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers SS Corey Seager ($3000) has a boom or bust opportunity tonight against San Francisco Giants SP Johnny Cueto and his 34 percent fly ball rate and nearly two bombs per nine innings pitched. Seager has a .232 ISO, wOBA of .456 and wRC+ of 187 against right handed pitchers and if gopher ball Cueto shows up this could be a great play tonight.

Special thanks to FangraphsVegas Insider, Statmuse and Baseball-Reference for helping me write this posting.

Good luck at FanDuel tonight!

In case you are interested;

On this week’s Nuthin But Fantasy hosts Andrea LaMont and Phil Naessens discuss selling Milwaukee Brewers sluggers Eric Thames “high”, Wade Miley vs Chase Anderson, waiver wire adds and much more!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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