FanDuel MLB Top Picks for Friday May 5, 2017

 

We have 13 games on the main MLB slate at FanDuel tonight. We also have Coors Field to deal with tonight as well.

We do have some weather to keep our eyes on in New York, Pittsburgh, and possibly Philadelphia so you might want to check the weather to be sure the game your players are playing in is actually going to happen. I use this site for the weather.

 

Games Money Line Over Under Totals
Nationals @ Phillies Nationals -175 8
White Sox @ Orioles Baltimore -157 8.5
Brewers @ Pirates Pirates -131 8
Blue Jays @ Rays Rays -155 7.5
Marlins @ Mets Mets -124 8
Cardinals @ Braves Cardinals -123 8.5
Red Sox @ Twins Red Sox -115 9
Indians @ Royals Indians -150 8
Diamondbacks @ Rockies Rockies -115 10
Tigers @ Athletics Tigers -112 8
Astros @ Angels Houston -142 8
Rangers @ Mariners Rangers -121 7.5
Dodgers @ Padres Dodgers -150 7.5

 

Starting Pitchers

Washington Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg ($10,400) has a good opportunity tonight in Philadelphia against a Phillies offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of .321 and wRC+ of 102 against right handers this season. Strasburg has been really good on the road this season with a 31 percent strikeout rate, 2.37 xFIP and 11.57 strikeouts per nine innings without allowing a single bomb on the road. There is a slight chance of rain in the forecast tonight but more concerning is the 12 MPH wind blowing out to left field expected tonight at Citizens Bank Park.

Cleveland Indians SP Danny Salazar ($10,200) has what I think is the best opportunity tonight against a Kansas City Royals offense with a 20 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of .283 and wRC+ of 75 against right handers this season. Salazar has pitched well on the road this season with a 32 percent strikeout rate, 3.23 xFIP and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Salazar does have a tendency to give up a bomb or two and the wind is forecasted to be blowing out to right field at about 7MPH tonight so do keep this in mind.

You could also go with Tampa Bay Rays SP Chris Archer ($9600) tonight against a Toronto Blue Jays offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of 287 and wRC+ of 79 against right handed pitching this season. Archer has been very solid at home this season with a 27 percent strikeout rate, 3.15 xFIP, ten strikeouts per nine innings pitched and zero bombs allowed at home. Weather won’t be a factor tonight as this game will be played inside a dome.

Los Angeles Dodgers SP Kenta Maeda ($8400) has a good opportunity tonight against a San Diego Padres offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate, wOBA of 300 and wRC+ of 85 against right handed pitchers. Maeda has been okay this season on the road with a 21 percent strikeout rate, 4.79 xFIP and nine strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Maeda has allowed 4.58 bombs per nine innings pitched on the road but those bombs occurred in Arizona and Colorado and probably why those numbers are inflated as at home he is allowing 1.19 bombs per nine innings pitched. Maeda shouldn’t have those issues tonight in Petco Park.

Stacking Options for Tonight

Coors Field is in play tonight so Diamondbacks and Rockies bats as usual are priced on the high side. I’ll let you decide what bats to use in that game.

The Boston Red Sox are in Minneapolis to play the Minnesota Twins and this game has a nice nine run over under starting point and winds expected to be blowing out to right field at ten MPH. The Red Sox are a slight favorite here and I like Sox bats Mookie Betts ($4100), Hanley Ramirez ($3800), Andrew Benintendi ($3800) and Mitch Moreland ($3400) tonight against Twins right hander Phil Hughes.

The Chicago White Sox have been killing left handers this season with a wOBA of .352 and wRC+ of 126 while striking out only 16 percent of the time when facing lefties this season. White Sox bats I like tonight are Avisail Garcia ($3700), Jose Abreu ($3500), Todd Frazier ($3700) and Melky Cabrera ($3100) tonight against Orioles starting pitcher Wade Miley.

Phil’s Top Three Plays For Tonight

Atlanta Braves 1B Freddie Freeman ($4500) is priced like he is playing in Coors Field but he has a very solid opportunity tonight at home against St Louis Cardinals rightie Lance Lynn. In 31 plate appearances at home Freeman has a .440 ISO, wOBA of .674 and wRC+ 0f 321 with eight bombs this season against right handed arms. He will also have the help of an 11 MPH wind blowing out to right field. Lynn has allowed 4.15 bombs per nine on the road against left handed bats with an xFIP of 8.18 in 11 innings pitched on the road this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers 3B Justin Turner ($3700) has a good opportunity tonight against San Diego Padres SP Jhoulys Chacin. In 30 plate appearances against right handers on the road this season Turner has a .037 ISO with a wOBA of .319 and wRC+ of 99 with zero bombs. Chacin has been solid at home against right handed bats allowing zero bombs with an xFIP of 2.69 in 14.2 innings pitched at home this season. The reason I like this matchup? Turner is currently 14th in the Majors over all this season and I think he will make 5 times value tonight.

Detroit Tigers C Alex Avila ($2900) is the number one rated hitter against right handed pitching this season of those with a minimum of 50 plate appearances. Avila faces Oakland A’s SP Andrew Triggs tonight. Triggs has allowed zero home runs per nine innings but has an xFIP of 5.13 to left handed bats in 16.1 innings pitched at home this season. In 19 plate appearances on the road this season against righties Avila has a .625 ISO, wOBA of .589 and wRC+ of 294 against right handed pitchers this season. The wind is going to be blowing out to right field at about 15 MPH tonight and I will have 100 percent exposure to Avila on FanDuel tonight.

Special thanks to FangraphsVegas Insider, Statmuse and Baseball-Reference for helping me write this posting.

Good luck at FanDuel tonight!!

 

 

 

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