FanDuel MLB Report for Tuesday April 11, 2017

There are 10 games on the main MLB slate at FanDuel tonight. There are plenty of options to consider for tonight and since the sample sizes are awfully small we’ll be using career stats as well as results from this season to determine our best possible plays for tonight.

Special thanks to Fangraphs, Statmuse and Baseball-Reference for helping me write this posting.

Game Favorite Over Under Totals
NY Mets @ Philadelphia Mets -137 8
St Louis at Washington Washington -138 8.5
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -155 8
Milwaukee @ Toronto Toronto -175 9
Baltimore @ Boston Boston -135 9
Atlanta @ Miami Miami -135 8
San Diego @ Colorado Colorado -176 12
Texas @ L.A. Angels Both opened at -105 8
Houston @ Seattle Houston -113 8
Arizona @ San Francisco San Francisco -140 8

 

Pitching Options

FanDuel changed the scoring a bit for pitching results this season offering four points for a ‘Quality Start” so we now can consider this into our research.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher J.A. Happ ($8500) is coming off a good outing in Baltimore and has a good opportunity tonight against a Milwaukee Brewers offense with a 30 percent strikeout rate against lefties thus far this season. Happ has pitched well thus far against righties with seven strikeouts and a paltry .206 wOBA and 2.24 xFIP. Toronto is heavily favored in this one and I like the opportunity Happ has tonight at home against the Brewers.

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Bartolo Colon ($7600) is also coming off a good outing in New York and is in the underdog role tonight on the road against the Miami Marlins. Colon does a good job getting lefties out but righties do have a .316 wOBA against Colon in 2017. The Marlins have a 23.5 percent strikeout rate against righties and .123 ISO but I think Colon can be effective enough to at least get a Quality Start tonight against the Marlins.

I suppose New York Mets Matt Harvey ($8700) against the Phillies tonight might be okay but at that price I will pass.

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Lance Lynn ($6900) has a tough row to hoe tonight in Washington against the Nationals but if he can somehow get you 25-30 FanDuel points tonight that would make him a very good play.

Stacking Opportunities

I love to pick on Jered Weaver and as luck would have it he’s pitching in Colorado tonight against the Rockies. The Rockies have a .161 ISO against righties this season and while Weaver has been tough on lefties thus far this season righties have rocked him for two bombs and a .638 wOBA. Feel free to stack both sides of the Rockies lineup against Weaver tonight.

I like the Toronto Blue Jays tonight against Wily Peralta. Peralta was really good his last outing but over his career he’s been pretty awful. The Blue Jays 23 percent strikeout rate would matter if Peralta were a strikeout pitcher but he’s not. If I were to do a Blue Jays stack tonight against Peralta it would look something like this;

Kendrys Morales ($3000)

Troy Tulowitzki ($2800)

Jose Bautista ($3400)

Russell Martin ($2600)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rookie Davis is off to a rough start to the season and left handed bats have been the direct beneficiary with a .613 wOBA and a couple of bombs in just three innings pitched. Davis did strikeout 28 percent of the lefties he’s faced but bats like Josh Bell ($2500), Adam Frazier ($2300) and Gregory Polanco ($3100).

The Houston Astros have a good opportunity tonight against Seattle Mariners leftie Ariel Miranda. Lefties and righties clobber the young fella and I expect more of the same tonight in Seattle.

My Top Three Plays for Tuesday

Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman ($3600) has a great opportunity tonight against Marlins starting pitcher Dan Straily.  Straily has a xFIP of 9.10 against lefties this season while Freeman has a .418 wOBA and 157 wRC+. I know the sample size is small but I don’t think 11+ FanDuel points tonight for Freeman is out of reach.

Houston Astros outfielder George Springer ($4000) has a good opportunity tonight against Seattle starting pitcher Ariel Miranda. Miranda has a 5.53 xFIP against righties and while Springer has been off to a slow start against lefties this season he does have a lifetime wOBA of .386 and wRC+ of 149 against lefties.

Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado ($3800) has a good opportunity tonight against Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz and his career xFIP of 3.51 against righties. Machado is 1-3 lifetime against Pomeranz and over his career Machado has a .320 wOBA and 111 wRC+ against lefties over his career. Call me crazy but I think Machado has a great day today against Pomeranz.

Good luck at FanDuel tonight!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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